Search results for "Tail risk"
showing 6 items of 6 documents
When Bitcoin Has the Flu: On Bitcoin’s Performance to Hedge Equity Risk in the Early Wake of the COVID-19 Outbreak
2020
Using the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak as a set-up for a quasi-experiment, this study derives novel insights on the dynamic correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks. Given the unprecedented scale of infections and the nature of the virus, the potential impact on the dynamic correlation was unpredictable and therefore uncertain. Using a difference-in-differences setting, the dynamic correlation between Bitcoin and stocks is controlled for the dynamic correlation between gold and stocks. This study finds that Bitcoin performed poorly in hedging this tail risk.
The euro area sovereign debt crisis: Can contagion spread from the periphery to the core?
2014
Abstract We examine the determinants of joint default risk of euro area countries during 2007–2011. To accomplish this, we recover joint default probabilities from individual CDS contracts. In contrast to earlier theoretical studies, we find that financial linkages are an active contagion transmission channel only in the case of the troubled periphery euro area economies. During the current sovereign debt crisis, real economy linkages play a more important role in transmitting shocks from the euro area periphery towards its core. Countries that have stronger trade interconnections with troubled economies tend to have a higher expected joint default risk.
Risk Management for Sovereign Financing within a Debt Sustainability Framework
2018
The mix of instruments used to finance a sovereign is a key determinant of debt sustainability through its effect on funding costs and risks. We extend standard debt sustainability analysis to incorporate debt-financing decisions in the presence of macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal risks. We optimize the maturity of debt instruments to trade off borrowing costs with refinancing risk. Risk is quantified with a coherent measure of tail risk of financing needs, conditional Flow-at-Risk. A constraint on the pace of reduction of debt stocks is also imposed, and we model the effect of debt stocks on the yield curve through endogenous risk and term premia. On a simulated economy, we show that t…
On the Tail Risk of Cyberattacks in the Bitcoin Market
2020
In the era of digitalization, cryptocurrencies have become an alternative asset for both retail and institutional investors. While the new emerging digital ecosystem based on blockchain technology has been praised for offering plenty of advantages such as decentralization, discretion or increased efficiency in terms of faster settlements among others, investors need to be aware of new types of risks such as hacking incidents. In the 2011-2018 period, about 1.7 million unit of Bitcoin have been stolen corresponding to losses accumulating more than $655 million highlighting the societal impact of this criminal activity. The novel aspect of our study is that it employs a recently proposed appr…
Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing
2021
We model sovereign debt sustainability with optimal financing decisions under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty, with endogenous risk and term premia. Using a coherent risk measure we trade-off debt stock and flow risks subject to sustainability constraints. We optimize static and dynamic financing strategies and demonstrate economically significant savings from optimal financing compared with simple rules and consols, and find that optimizing the trade-offs can be critical for sustainability. The model quantifies minimum refinancing risk and maximum rate of debt reduction that a sovereign can achieve given its economic fundamentals, and an extension identifies optimal timing…
How Much Are We Willing To Lose in Cyberspace? On the Tail Risk of Scam in the Market for Initial Coin Offerings
2020
From an entrepreneurial perspective, Initial Coin Offering (ICO) has become an alternative way for attaining funding for business projects using the new evolving digital financial market for tokens. Unfortunately, the majority of all ICOs are subject to scam which casts doubt on this new innovative tool for acquiring funding. Using a unique intensively hand-collected data set covering more than 5000 ICOs which have been launched in the August 2014–December 2019 period, we could identify 1014 ICOs exhibiting data on raised funding whereof 576 turned out to be scams projects. The cumulative losses due to scam in the ICO market correspond to $10.12 billion which is 66% of our identified overal…